The growth in demand for oil worldwide in 2015 was more than two and a half times greater than in 2019; it plunged precipitously between 2017 and 2019. In Colorado, oil production in April was just one-sixth of the volume in March. The Freedom platform includes banning all new fossil fuel leasing on federal lands and offshore waters; ending government subsidies for fossil fuels; banning fracking; and tightening regulatory controls such that public health and safety and environmental protection are prioritized over fossil fuel production. They are looking to diversify their economies and find other sources of energy. Now two influential reports suggest that this state of … Whoops! The Pandemic and the End of Oil? OPEC, Russia, and other supplier nations did finally begin to hold back oil production. Going further, increasingly popular plans for local and national Green New Deals and global green stimulus packages will ensure the necessary government support for transitioning oil-dependent workers to well-paying, unionized green-energy jobs. Fast forward a few years, and a new version of the end of oil began to take hold. One thing the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has done is to collapse oil demand, and subsequently prices. The most pressing challenge facing oil producers today is the collapse of prices. In an astounding prediction, they argue that “geologic consolidation” will now take place, with US oil production shrinking—though not ending—everywhere other than the Permian, with production concentrating in the hands of the biggest players (see “A Long Sunset”). With every visit to the gas pump, after all, the end of cheap oil draws closer. Yet even at that bargain-basement price, there were few takers. Then, the price of oil skyrocketed to almost $150 a barrel, crushing consumers and consumer nations. Oil prices have so far risen recently to nearly $50 a barrel, but with the pandemic still keeping the pressure on oil demand, it is unlikely that prices are headed much higher in the next year. On the global level, turning away from oil will require wealthy countries to meet their obligations under the Paris Agreement and provide $500 billion by 2025 to support poorer countries’ transition to green, sustainable economies. This article appeared in the September/October 2020 edition with the headline "The End of Oil?". The result of the organizing and advocacy is death by a thousand cuts, leaving behind an industry producing too much of a commodity that is of shrinking value. Even as investors were abandoning oil company stocks, a flood of cheap money and easy credit had been keeping the industry afloat. However, I felt like that point was probably a decade away. By June, global oil supply had fallen by some 12 million barrels a day (nearly 13 percent). With Sigourney Weaver. Like what you read? There have been two general schools of thought about how it will ultimately end. Thanks for signing up for the Green Life email newsletter. This version of the end of oil became very popular just before the shale oil boom. In fact, for a while it looked like this version might play out. Posted on February 11, 2021, 11:33. On May 12, Greenpeace activists sailed into San Francisco Bay to issue a challenge to the public. I don’t think so, but it is hard to say what the lingering impact on oil demand will be from the coronavirus pandemic. Corporate profits and market values, as well as investor returns, have been in a nosedive. The most pressing challenge facing oil producers today is the collapse of prices. The Greenpeace activists are right. Across the United States, more than 100,000 oil and gas and associated industry jobs were lost between March and May. Recent months have seen a growing crescendo of claims that a peak in oil demand may be near, or even be past. Oh great the fossil fuel is ending anytime soon! And it would be highly dependent on whether U.S. shale oil production continued to grow. He has written about resource economics and politics for numerous publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, and Rolling Stone, and lectures frequently on business and environmental issues. Please email webmaster@sierraclub.org. He is author of Utility Forecaster at Investing Daily, and of the book Power Plays: Energy Options in the Age of Peak Oil. Bernstein thinks triple-digit oil isn't something we'll see "anytime soon." When oil demand dropped during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it bounced back strongly in 2010. Now that the fossil fuels' days finally seem to be numbered, it is time to consider not just what will come next, but also what it will take to get there. This is good news for the largest oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell. Painting an ominous picture for the Wall Street Journal in 2019, Raoul LeBlanc of IHS Markit said that oil companies “don’t have the ability to borrow anymore.”. As their fortunes diminished, oil and gas companies and many oil-producing countries tried to drill their way out of financial crisis. Monaldi explains that the oil market is treading into uncharted territory: “The situation right now is unprecedented. Oil Demand Has Collapsed; Won't Come Back Any Time Soon The pandemic massively reduced the world's consumption of oil. Antonia Juhasz is an energy analyst, investigative journalist, and author specializing in oil. A major factor for weak oil demand growth in recent years is the increasing level of … In March, US oil production increased even as Saudi Arabia and Russia entered into a price war that pushed the price of oil down even further. Thus, as at no other time since the industry’s inception, the actions taken now by the public and by policymakers will determine oil’s fate. “It’s been critical for Black people, Indigenous people, and people of color to stop the money pipeline,” says Reverend Lennox Yearwood Jr., president of the Hip Hop Caucus. 430,000 years ago a meteor exploded over Antarctica, leaving clues in the debris. Home | Contact Us | Careers | En Español | Terms and Conditions of Use | Privacy Policy/Your California Privacy Rights | Website HelpSierra Club® and "Explore, enjoy and protect the planet"® are registered trademarks of the Sierra Club. Heat And Spill. But well before the pandemic arrived, the private-capital flows were weakening. The End of Oil Is Near By Antonia Juhasz | Aug 24 2020 THIS PAST SPRING, coastlines around the globe took on the feel of an enemy invasion as hundreds of massive oil tankers overwhelmed seaports from South Africa to Singapore. It's the question of our generation: Can we find a sustainable alternative to oil? The loss of investor confidence was also a result of global activism. Subscribe to our magazine by becoming a Sierra Club member today. Shortly thereafter, OPEC+ (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia, Bahrain, Mexico, and another half dozen producers) reached a global agreement to cut oil supply. In reality, the argument wasn't that the world was going to run out of oil, it was that oil production would begin a long decline and cause havoc in a world that is still highly dependent upon oil. The boom made the United States the world’s largest oil producer and drove production across the nation, with states including Colorado, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Texas all reaching record highs. Today, the global oil industry is in a tailspin. If that transition starts to happen in earnest, then the peak demand scenario that I thought we would see in maybe 2030 will be here a lot sooner than that. President Biden Just Dropped the C-Word. That outcome is very different. Sign up for daily updates from Sierra magazine. To give you an idea, the largest decline in oil demand in the history of the oil industry was about 4 percent in 1981. At the same time, more people are supporting the ongoing efforts of frontline communities, particularly Indigenous peoples, to defend their lands from fossil fuel operations. Fast forward a few years, and a new version of the end of oil began to take hold. There are also many ideas for how the United States can disentangle itself from the power of the oil industry. Robert has 25 years of international engineering experience in the chemicals, oil and gas, and renewable. The geopolitical and corporate machinations provide a stark demonstration of how, even when faced with the worst possible scenarios for demand, supply, and price, the oil industry simply will not stop drilling unless it is forced to do so. 430,000 years ago a meteor exploded over Antarctica, leaving clues in the debris. Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden admitted during Thursday night’s final presidential debate that he going to end the oil industry if elected president. I believe what we saw in the 2005-2014 time frame was a preview of the peak oil scenario. One distressed news article proclaimed that a “floating hoard” of oil sat in tankers anchored across the North Sea, “everywhere from the UK to France and the Netherlands.” In April, the US Coast Guard shared an alarming video that showed dozens of tankers spread out for miles along California’s coast.